"}
The Gristle

Inland Empire

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

INLAND EMPIRE: In a low-stakes, low turnout primary broadly avoided by progressive voters, Democrats struggled in upper northwest Washington—a fascinating augury into election results in November.

According to the Whatcom County Auditor’s Office, voter turnout in August was just over 33 percent, healthier than the statewide average and neighboring counties. Fall-off in votes cast for Democrats in the 2014 primary versus support for those candidates in 2012 averaged around 9 points in the state’s ten congressional districts, less in the Puget Sound districts. Significant, but not nearly so great as to imperil the six seats held by Democrats in those districts when progressives arrive in larger numbers this fall.

Inland of the blue coast, the political landscape of the Cascade Foothills remains elusive to easy analysis.

The people of Washington were wise to put in place mechanisms to adjust representative districts based on population changes in a manner that files the hardest edges off redistricting. A bipartisan commission analyzes districts, and involves the Legislature only in the event of a deadlock of commission recommendations. While not perfect, the worst abuses of gerrymandering seen in other parts of the nation are avoided. As a result, the Foothills remain a vital terrain.

Incumbent Democrat Suzan DelBene pulled in nearly 51 percent of the vote against a jumble of conservative candidates vying to replace her in the 1st Congressional District, a vast area that includes most of rural Whatcom, Skagit, Snohomish, and a portion of King County. In a stunning collapse, the anointed challenger heavily backed by Republican money to uproot DelBene, Pedro Celis, failed to edge past originalist hardliner Robert Sutherland. As we’ve noted before, there’s just not much to distinguish one Republican from another these days—they’re all originalist hardliners—and no doubt this compounded the inability of Celis to make headway in this race.

The new 1st Congressional District was widely perceived to be a rural battleground in a fierce tug-of-war for control by the parties, yet—when the left wakes up in numbers to cast their votes in November—this race is all but decided. To her credit, DelBene understands her district and focused her energies on agriculture and similar subjects of broad appeal, successfully navigating them through an otherwise paralyzed House of Representatives, where her party remains in the minority.

Similarly, the 42nd Legislative District remains a battleground, despite years of erosion of progressive Bellingham votes south to the 40th District.

Republican Luanne VanWerven easily dominated a competitive field of conservative candidates, collecting a third of all votes cast for the position she seeks as a representative in the state Legislature. Stacking their results on to hers—as will undoubtedly happen in November—produces a steep climb for Democrat Satpal Sidhu, who collected just under 40 percent of the votes cast. In the second legislative seat, Democrat Joy Monjure faces a similar climb against incumbent Republican Vincent Buys.

That 15-ish point spread appears to reflect a durable division among likely voters in the 42nd District, perhaps the natural, unfired baseline of the district unagitated by issues or the energies of campaigns. This is the “new normal,” the size—if you will—of the culture divide in this freshly redrawn voting district. It is in the silence of the seven-in-ten registered voters who sat out the primary, insufficiently moved by appeals from either side of the divide, that the battle for November will be waged.

That spread appears again in the most heavily watched local race this season, Seth Fleetwood’s challenge to the incumbent Sen. Doug Ericksen, with the Bellingham Democrat trailing by about 4,000 ballots and the Ferndale Republican in a commanding 14-point lead.

Ericksen’s career arc has closely matched changes in 42nd District voter demographics and, yes, changes within the Republican Party itself.

 

A Huxley College graduate, Ericksen entered the Legislature in 2000 with the bated blessing of the League of Conservation Voters, who viewed him as a potential advocate of environmental issues on the right,*

When Ericksen ran for re-election in 2000, he was widely regarded as the superior candidate on issues of the environment, in an era when a more generous capacity of spirit was possible. And indeed, Ericksen in his first year generated a rating of 55 percent on WCV’s legislative scorecard for his votes on the environment—higher than many Democrats. It was not a record destined to last, as his WCV score plummeted to half that in his second year, half again in the year following, and nearly flatlined every year thereafter. He demonstrated himself early on as a back-bench bomb thrower, eager to shank the efforts of colleagues in the 42nd and neighboring districts. As his party grew more narrow and partisan, so too did Ericksen.

The collapse of Republican fortunes in the mid-term elections of the Bush Administration’s second term curiously left Ericksen as nearly the last senior GOPer standing in Olympia, completing his transformation into a caucus leader and mainstay for a party growing markedly more strident and less cooperative. Every vote counted among Republicans, and in his role as Deputy Republican Leader, Ericksen had to marshal and inspire all of them.

Ericksen’s shift to the senate in 2010 following the retirement of Dale Brandland—the consummate centrist and model for a swing district—threw his arc on steroids. The bombs one can lob from the senate are much more powerful, and the damage one can inflict as chair of powerful committees is extreme. His caucus, meanwhile, has underscored relentless obstruction as a central goal and organizing principle.

Ericksen has moved quite far to the right in his time in office. His district has edged there, too. But have they moved in synch? November will tell.

* This error of Ericksen’s early legislative history has been corrected.

ICU
Past Columns
Washington v. Trump, 2

February 15, 2017

Washington v. Trump

February 8, 2017

Between East and West

February 1, 2017

Beachhead

January 25, 2017

Stormin’ ORMA

January 18, 2017

Stormwater Rising

January 11, 2017

Knockout Blows

January 4, 2017

Continental Divide

December 28, 2016

Auld Lang’s Decline

December 21, 2016

A tale of two commissions

December 14, 2016

Jack’s Attack

December 7, 2016

Lawless

November 30, 2016

Forever Protecting

November 23, 2016

YOYO vs. WITT

November 16, 2016

REDMAP

November 2, 2016

Civil War

October 26, 2016

Twice Zero

October 19, 2016

Convergent Streams

October 12, 2016

Blockadia

October 5, 2016

A Stitch In Time

September 28, 2016

Events
Today
KMRE broadcaster receives citizen journalism award

5:00pm

17th annual Bellingham Human Rights Film Festival

10:00am|Whatcom County

New documentary focuses human rights film festival

7:52pm

Winter Camping Basics

6:00pm|REI

Cuban Salsa

6:00pm|Bell Tower Studios

Bite of Blaine

6:00pm|Semiahmoo Resort

Pizza Party

6:30pm|Community Food Co-op

Rock & Gem Club Meeting

7:00pm|Bloedel Donovan Community Center

Rock and Gem Club Meeting

7:00pm|Bloedel Donovan Community Center

Swing Dance

8:00pm|Eagles Hall

Guffawingham

9:30pm|Green Frog

IGN Cascadia Bellingham Technical College
Tomorrow
KMRE broadcaster receives citizen journalism award

5:00pm

17th annual Bellingham Human Rights Film Festival

10:00am|Whatcom County

New documentary focuses human rights film festival

7:52pm

Farm-to-Table Trade Meeting

8:30am|Bellingham Technical College

Community Preparedness

2:00pm|Bellingham Public Library

Baker Backcountry Basics

6:00pm|REI

All-Paces Run

6:00pm|Fairhaven Runners

Putting the kick in cross-country

6:00pm

Dressings, Sauces and Stocks

6:30pm|Ciao Thyme Commons

Prawn Particulars

6:30pm|Community Food Co-op

Tides

7:00pm|Village Books

Books on Tap

7:00pm|North Fork Brewery

Bellingham Farmer’s Market Cascadia Weekly Subscribe Ad 1
Wednesday
KMRE broadcaster receives citizen journalism award

5:00pm

17th annual Bellingham Human Rights Film Festival

10:00am|Whatcom County

New documentary focuses human rights film festival

7:52pm

Community Coffee and Tea

9:00am|East Whatcom Regional Resource Center

Garden Design Class

4:00pm|Blaine Library

Ukulele for Everyone

4:00pm|Everson Library

Handmade Pasta Class

5:30pm|Semiahmoo Resort

Group Run

6:00pm|Skagit Running Company

Frankie Gavin

6:30pm|Leopold Crystal Ballroom

Kombucha and Kefir

6:30pm|Cordata Community Food Co-op

Unsettlers

7:00pm|Village Books

Nothing simple about it

7:00pm

Mike Allen Quartet

7:00pm|Unity Spiritual Center

Panty Hoes

9:00pm|Rumors Cabaret

see our complete calendar »

MBT Rovers Village Books Northwood Steak and Crab Bellingham Technical College Trove Cascadia Weekly Subscribe Ad 1 Bellingham Farmer’s Market