The Gristle

Zero Hour

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

ZERO HOUR: It is certainly true that if one party in a negotiation wants several things and the other party wants only one thing, then the other party that wants only one thing is severely leveraged over the party that wants several—and particularly so when the single thing that’s wanted is to categorically deny the several things wanted by the first party. This is the dynamic that has forced the state Legislature toward a fiscal cliff and government shutdown.

A visibly irritated Governor Jay Inslee called for a third special session last week, after the Legislature ended their second special session with no budget agreement. Inslee had earlier threatened to call no additional session in order to force lawmakers to the negotiating table.

If the Legislature cannot pass a 2017-2019 budget by June 30—this Friday—then certain state offices and facilities will start closing that same day and be totally shut down on July 1. And they’re very close, working in sessions late into the evening, which is perhaps why the governor eased his own pressure on their deliberations by granting them more time.

“Last night we worked in committee until 2am, the previous night the same,” Sen. Kevin Ranker admitted. “Look, I don’t put in those kinds of long, long, late hours unless we’re close, and we’re extremely close. If you see me leaving early, that’s a problem,” the Democrats’ top budget writer laughed. The Orcas Island Democrat predicted an agreement before clock runs out at the end of the week.

The sticking point, as it has been throughout the regular and successive special sessions in Olympia, is the funding of public education as required under the state Supreme Court’s McCleary decision.

“For some time, Republicans and Democrats have both agreed that we needed to make a monumental investment in K through 12 education,” Ranker said. “There has, however, been a difference on how we pay for it.”

For the bulk of the regular session, Republicans insisted no new revenues were necessary for a response to McCleary, an investment in public education most budget analysts have pegged at $7 billion. Late in the session, unable to pencil the requirements to fully fund public education through cuts alone, Republicans proposed a massive property tax realignment. Under the Republican plan, the myriad local property tax levies that are currently providing for the operations of schools would ease and be replaced by a statewide levy. But the proposal would hit areas with high property values hard—raising taxes in urban areas and politically blue districts—while having limited (or perhaps even beneficial) effect in areas with low property values—rural areas, and particularly those in the eastern portion of the state, and red districts politically.

Democrats wanted new revenue and new forms of revenue in order to reduce the burden on the state’s heavily subscribed mix of property and sales taxes. Democrats sought a tax on high-end capital gains and balked at the Republican proposal, believing it continued to inflame the state’s regressive tax structure. Politically, the GOP plan is a poison pill that punishes liberal districts of Puget Sound to the political gain of conservatives inland.

“In the past few years, lawmakers in Washington state have passively relied on revenue growth from the shaky economic recovery in order to make sluggish progress toward fully funding schools, per the state Supreme Court’s McCleary mandate,” analysts at Washington State Budget & Policy Center commented. “This approach has been both inadequate—the Legislature is currently being held in contempt for failing to fully fund schools—and irresponsible, since most or all of the revenue growth will vanish when the next recession strikes.”

The leverage here is fully with Republicans, who’ve allowed several years to glide by without a solution to McCleary. And their leverage is particularly ferocious now, with a looming shutdown of government that they might turn to political advantage into the fall.

“Republicans and Democrats are working tirelessly to get it done and make sure we don’t have a shutdown,” Ranker said. “What’s disappointing is there is even a threat of a shutdown. The people of Washington deserve better.”

While neither party wants to plunge over the fiscal cliff, Republican lawmakers have made it clear they’re willing to do so to achieve larger goals.

At this hour, and with many more hours of negotiation to go, it appears likely the Republicans will achieve their plan to realign property tax to fund public education. And (the Gristle predicts) the property tax will be approved on strictly partisan lines, with Republicans having sufficient votes in the Senate to pass the realignment on their own.

The budget makes enormous strides in meeting state requirements under McCleary, but it does so by being bare bones in the funding of other state programs, including those that assist lower incomes, women’s and children’s health, and the environment.

On the last, the state’s land and shoreline protections are just pummeled in this budget. And a general surrender on Hirst, the Supreme Court ruling on rural wells, will almost certainly be painfully extracted from Democrats in this last-minute exchange.

Republican senators have insisted on an agreement on water rights policy before they’ll engage in talks on a capital spending plan. The Republican solution to Hirst essentially nullifies the Supreme Court ruling by reasserting full circle that rural wells are exempt from larger considerations of water quantity. It’s a “fix” that may trigger another furious round of well digging, but not one likely to long satisfy the high court protections of senior water rights.

It’s a discouraging era for Democrats—chided by the left to seek higher values and more noble goals, but insufficient in numbers in their caucus to robustly defend even the values and goals we currently have. A wall cannot be built while the sea rushes in.

ICU Roof #2
Past Columns
Napkin Plan

November 15, 2017

Less Wave Than Slosh

November 8, 2017

Statistics of Shame

November 1, 2017

Cashing Out, Cashing In

October 25, 2017

A Creeping Paralysis

October 18, 2017

Fire and Water

October 11, 2017

Blockadia

September 27, 2017

Ounce of Prevention

September 20, 2017

Dwelling On It

September 13, 2017

Keeping the Dream Alive

September 6, 2017

A Bridge Too Far?

August 23, 2017

The Missing Middle

August 16, 2017

The Last, Best Solution

August 9, 2017

Fire and Water III

August 2, 2017

Fire and Water II

July 26, 2017

Fire and Water

July 19, 2017

Some Assembly Required

July 12, 2017

Good, Bad, Ugly

July 5, 2017

Standoff

June 21, 2017

An Existential Triangle

June 14, 2017

Events
Today
Home for the Holidays

5:00pm|Ferndale Events Center

The 39 Steps

7:00pm|Sehome High School Little Theatre

Little Women

7:00pm|Ferndale High School

Peter and the Star Catcher

7:00pm|Squalicum High School

Romeo, You Idiot!

7:30pm|Heiner Theater

Fools

7:30pm|Mount Baker High School

Craft Bazaar

9:00am|American Legion Post #43

Holiday Festival of the Arts

10:00am|Meridian Street

Hot Cider & Cool Art

10:00am|Morgan Block Studios

Used Book Sale

10:00am|Everson Library

Red Barn Handpicked Holiday Market

12:00pm|Northwest Washington Fairgrounds

Holiday Gifts from the Kitchen

3:00pm|Lynden Library, Ferndale Library

It's Where the Sidewalk Ends

6:00pm|Bellingham Arts Academy for Youth

New Music, New Dance

7:30pm|Performing Arts Center Concert Hall

The Big Short One-Act Festival

7:30pm|McIntyre Hall

Bellingham Repertory Dance's Emerge

7:30pm|Firehouse Performing Arts Center

Backyard Brawl

8:00pm|Upfront Theatre

VFW Breakfast

8:00am|VFW Hall

Pancake Breakfast

8:00am|Ferndale Senior Center

Pancake Feed

8:00am|VFW Post 1585

Holiday Bazaar

9:00am|Hillcrest Chapel

Christmas in the Woods

9:00am|Garden Spot Nursery

NSEA Work Party

9:00am|Acme Elementary School

Turkey Trot

9:00am|Squalicum Creek Park

Climate Reality

10:00am|Bellingham Public Library

South Fork Winterfest

10:00am|Van Zandt Community Hall

Fall Gardening

10:00am|Lynden Library

Cheese Fest

10:00am|Everybody's Store

Bellingham Farmers Market

10:00am|Depot Market Square

Rexville Grange Holiday Art Show

10:00am|Rexville Grange

Holiday Farmers Market

10:00am|Port of Anacortes Transit Shed Event Center

Lynden Book Club

10:30am|Everson Library

Salmon Sighting

12:00pm|Haynie Creek

Conquering Writer's Block

2:00pm|South Whatcom Library

Fishboy Holiday Show

2:00pm|FishBoy Gallery

NaNoWriMo and Indie Publishing

3:00pm|Everson Library

Skagit Wine & Beer Festival

3:00pm|Eaglemont

Homeless Summit and Cold Weather Giveaway

3:00pm|Maritime Heritage Park

i.e. artists talk

3:30pm|i.e. gallery

Small Works Opening

4:00pm|Matzke Fine Art Gallery and Sculpture Park

Smith & Vallee Artist Talk

4:00pm| Smith & Vallee Gallery

WA 129 Poetry Reading

6:00pm|Maple Hall

Giving from the Heart

7:00pm|Depot Art Center

A Light in the Darkness

7:00pm|Church of the Assumption

Welcome Home Celebration

7:00pm|Village Books

Ruach Consort

7:00pm|St. Paul's Episcopal Church

Contra Dance

7:00pm|Eagles Hall

Michael Kaeshammer

7:30pm|Mount Baker Theatre

Legends of the Blues V

7:30pm|Byrnes Performing Arts Center

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Tomorrow
Peter and the Star Catcher

7:00pm|Squalicum High School

Fools

7:30pm|Mount Baker High School

Holiday Festival of the Arts

10:00am|Meridian Street

Bellingham Repertory Dance's Emerge

7:30pm|Firehouse Performing Arts Center

Rexville Grange Holiday Art Show

10:00am|Rexville Grange

Cheese Fest

10:00am|Everybody's Store

Holiday Farmers Market

10:00am|Port of Anacortes Transit Shed Event Center

Rabbit Ride

8:00am|Fairhaven Bicycle

Community Breakfast

8:00am|American Legion Post #43

Rabbit Ride

8:30am|Fairhaven Bicycle

Getting in on the act

1:00pm

Sound of Music Singalong

1:00pm|Lincoln Theatre

A Musical Thanksgiving

2:00pm|McIntyre Hall

Harmony from Discord with Whatcom Symphony Orchestra

3:00pm|Mount Baker Theatre

The 25th Hour

4:00pm|Village Books

Southside Community Meal

5:00pm|Our Saviour's Lutheran Church

Way North Comedy Showcase

7:00pm|Farmstrong Brewing Co.

Rutie Dornfeld, John Miller

7:00pm|YWCA Ballroom

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Monday
Holiday Festival of the Arts

10:00am|Meridian Street

Wander + Camber Beer Dinner

6:30pm|Camber Cafe

Rocks & Gems

7:00pm|Bloedel Donovan Community Building

Guffawingham

9:30pm|Green Frog

see our complete calendar »

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