The Gristle

Zero Hour

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

ZERO HOUR: It is certainly true that if one party in a negotiation wants several things and the other party wants only one thing, then the other party that wants only one thing is severely leveraged over the party that wants several—and particularly so when the single thing that’s wanted is to categorically deny the several things wanted by the first party. This is the dynamic that has forced the state Legislature toward a fiscal cliff and government shutdown.

A visibly irritated Governor Jay Inslee called for a third special session last week, after the Legislature ended their second special session with no budget agreement. Inslee had earlier threatened to call no additional session in order to force lawmakers to the negotiating table.

If the Legislature cannot pass a 2017-2019 budget by June 30—this Friday—then certain state offices and facilities will start closing that same day and be totally shut down on July 1. And they’re very close, working in sessions late into the evening, which is perhaps why the governor eased his own pressure on their deliberations by granting them more time.

“Last night we worked in committee until 2am, the previous night the same,” Sen. Kevin Ranker admitted. “Look, I don’t put in those kinds of long, long, late hours unless we’re close, and we’re extremely close. If you see me leaving early, that’s a problem,” the Democrats’ top budget writer laughed. The Orcas Island Democrat predicted an agreement before clock runs out at the end of the week.

The sticking point, as it has been throughout the regular and successive special sessions in Olympia, is the funding of public education as required under the state Supreme Court’s McCleary decision.

“For some time, Republicans and Democrats have both agreed that we needed to make a monumental investment in K through 12 education,” Ranker said. “There has, however, been a difference on how we pay for it.”

For the bulk of the regular session, Republicans insisted no new revenues were necessary for a response to McCleary, an investment in public education most budget analysts have pegged at $7 billion. Late in the session, unable to pencil the requirements to fully fund public education through cuts alone, Republicans proposed a massive property tax realignment. Under the Republican plan, the myriad local property tax levies that are currently providing for the operations of schools would ease and be replaced by a statewide levy. But the proposal would hit areas with high property values hard—raising taxes in urban areas and politically blue districts—while having limited (or perhaps even beneficial) effect in areas with low property values—rural areas, and particularly those in the eastern portion of the state, and red districts politically.

Democrats wanted new revenue and new forms of revenue in order to reduce the burden on the state’s heavily subscribed mix of property and sales taxes. Democrats sought a tax on high-end capital gains and balked at the Republican proposal, believing it continued to inflame the state’s regressive tax structure. Politically, the GOP plan is a poison pill that punishes liberal districts of Puget Sound to the political gain of conservatives inland.

“In the past few years, lawmakers in Washington state have passively relied on revenue growth from the shaky economic recovery in order to make sluggish progress toward fully funding schools, per the state Supreme Court’s McCleary mandate,” analysts at Washington State Budget & Policy Center commented. “This approach has been both inadequate—the Legislature is currently being held in contempt for failing to fully fund schools—and irresponsible, since most or all of the revenue growth will vanish when the next recession strikes.”

The leverage here is fully with Republicans, who’ve allowed several years to glide by without a solution to McCleary. And their leverage is particularly ferocious now, with a looming shutdown of government that they might turn to political advantage into the fall.

“Republicans and Democrats are working tirelessly to get it done and make sure we don’t have a shutdown,” Ranker said. “What’s disappointing is there is even a threat of a shutdown. The people of Washington deserve better.”

While neither party wants to plunge over the fiscal cliff, Republican lawmakers have made it clear they’re willing to do so to achieve larger goals.

At this hour, and with many more hours of negotiation to go, it appears likely the Republicans will achieve their plan to realign property tax to fund public education. And (the Gristle predicts) the property tax will be approved on strictly partisan lines, with Republicans having sufficient votes in the Senate to pass the realignment on their own.

The budget makes enormous strides in meeting state requirements under McCleary, but it does so by being bare bones in the funding of other state programs, including those that assist lower incomes, women’s and children’s health, and the environment.

On the last, the state’s land and shoreline protections are just pummeled in this budget. And a general surrender on Hirst, the Supreme Court ruling on rural wells, will almost certainly be painfully extracted from Democrats in this last-minute exchange.

Republican senators have insisted on an agreement on water rights policy before they’ll engage in talks on a capital spending plan. The Republican solution to Hirst essentially nullifies the Supreme Court ruling by reasserting full circle that rural wells are exempt from larger considerations of water quantity. It’s a “fix” that may trigger another furious round of well digging, but not one likely to long satisfy the high court protections of senior water rights.

It’s a discouraging era for Democrats—chided by the left to seek higher values and more noble goals, but insufficient in numbers in their caucus to robustly defend even the values and goals we currently have. A wall cannot be built while the sea rushes in.

Smoking Crow
Past Columns
Symptoms of Pain

April 25, 2018

A Last Ditch Effort

April 18, 2018

Much ADUs About Nothing

April 11, 2018

The Sin of Sinclair

April 4, 2018

All Thumbs on the Scale

March 28, 2018

The Boundaries Between Us

March 21, 2018

Dirty Deeds

March 7, 2018

Sunshine Storm

February 28, 2018

A Public Education

February 21, 2018

Power Play

February 14, 2018

Neutral Ground

February 7, 2018

The Nature of the Emergency

January 31, 2018

‘Fix’ fumbled, punted

January 24, 2018

New Energy

January 17, 2018

Save Our Salish Sea

January 10, 2018

Predictions of Protractions

January 3, 2018

Parsing the Puzzle

December 27, 2017

Camp Kelli

December 20, 2017

Gifts of the Three Magi

December 13, 2017

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Free Appliance Pick-up

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The Lewis & Clark Expedition

10:00am|Mount Baker Theatre

English Country Dancing

1:30pm|Bellingham Senior Activity Center

Mt. Baker Plant Sale

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Jazz Jam

5:30pm|Illuminati Brewing

Pub Run

6:00pm|BBay Running

Canadian Exploration

6:30pm|Mount Vernon City Library

Mexican Kitchen

6:30pm|Community Food Co-op

Balkan Folk Dancers

7:00pm|Fairhaven Library

Get Gritty

7:00pm|Fairhaven Runners

9 to 5, the Musical

7:30pm|Anacortes Community Theatre

Misty Flowers

7:30pm|Chuckanut Center

Village Books
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Skagit Valley Tulip Festival

10:00am|Skagit Valley

Free Appliance Pick-up

10:00am|Whatcom County

Bellingham Beer Week

10:00am|Throughout Bellingham

Mt. Baker Plant Sale

3:00pm|Mt. Baker High School

9 to 5, the Musical

7:30pm|Anacortes Community Theatre

Wild Things

9:30am|Stimpson Family Nature Reserve

Book and Bake Sale

10:00am|Deming Library

Valley Writers

1:00pm|South Whatcom Library

Coffee Tasting

3:00pm|Camber Cafe

Food Not Bombs

4:00pm|Downtown Bellingham

Fourth Friday Art Walk

5:00pm|Historic Fairhaven

Ship of Fools Closing Reception

5:00pm|Cooper Lanza Gallery

Inspire Higher Dreams Gala

5:30pm|Silver Reef Event Center

Always...Patsy Cline

7:00pm|Conway Muse

Wilderness and Wellness

7:00pm|Village Books

Cantabile Chamber Choir

7:30pm

Skagit Community Band

7:30pm|Maple Hall

The Kid

7:30pm|Lincoln Theatre

Friday Night Flicks

7:30pm|Van Zandt Community Hall

Legends and Brawls

8:00pm|Upfront Theatre

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Saturday
Skagit Valley Tulip Festival

10:00am|Skagit Valley

Free Appliance Pick-up

10:00am|Whatcom County

Bellingham Beer Week

10:00am|Throughout Bellingham

Mt. Baker Plant Sale

3:00pm|Mt. Baker High School

9 to 5, the Musical

7:30pm|Anacortes Community Theatre

Book and Bake Sale

10:00am|Deming Library

Always...Patsy Cline

7:00pm|Conway Muse

Skagit Community Band

7:30pm|Maple Hall

Cantabile Chamber Choir

7:30pm

Legends and Brawls

8:00pm|Upfront Theatre

Ferndale Breakfast

8:00am|American Legion Hall Post #154

Have a Heart Run

9:00am|Edgewater Park

Senior Center Plant Sale

9:00am|Bellingham Senior Activity Center

Hydrangeas 101

9:00am|Garden Spot Nursery

Linuxfest Northwest

9:00am|Bellingham Technical College

Everson Garden Club Plant Sale

9:00am|Everson-Goshen Rd.

Independent Bookstore Day

9:00am|Village Books

Backyard Habitat and Native Flora Fair

10:00am|Fairhaven Village Green

Bellingham Farmers Market

10:00am|Depot Market Square

Vaisaikhi Day Celebration

10:00am|Guru Nanak Gursikh Gurdwara

Sudden Valley Garden Club Sale

10:00am|Sudden Valley Dance Barn

Correspondence Club

10:30am|Mindport Exhibits

Sculpture Tours

10:30am|Big Rock Garden Park

Growing Dry Beans and Grains

1:00pm|Chuckanut Center

Panel discusses oil sands pipeline

3:00pm

Klee Wyck Journal

4:00pm|Village Books

Visions of the Soul Opening

5:00pm|Forum Arts

Spring Has Sprung Opening Party

5:00pm|Matzke Fine Art Gallery and Sculpture Park

Naomi Shihab Nye

7:00pm|Performing Arts Center

Moon Walk

7:00pm|Whatcom County

Contra Dance with Incognito

7:00pm|Fairhaven Library

Dylan Foley and Eamon O'Leary

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Skagit Symphony Classics Concert

7:30pm|McIntyre Hall

Paula Poundstone

8:00pm|Lincoln Theatre

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