Make a Date With Oscar^®

Getting lucky with the little gold guy

By Carey Ross · Wednesday, March 3, 2010

As far as years for films go, I was not wowed by 2009. Yeah, yeah, it will forever go down in history as the year that James Cameron finally unleashed his decade-in-the-making masterpiece, Avatar (you might’ve heard of it), but other than that, it was, all around, a weak year for cinema.

Curious then, that 2009 was also the year the illustrious Academy decided to double the number of Best Picture nominees from five to 10. The merits of this are debatable, at best, but it seems to be in direct reaction to those years (2008 being one) when worthy Best Picture nominees were more plentiful than the category would previously allow. And the expanded number of nominees does have a historical precedent—prior to 1943, the category contained at least 10 entrants—so maybe there is a method to the Academy’s madness.

As always, with the nominations come the predictions. And while I’m no celebrated critic or Vegas odds maker, I do have a pretty good track record when it comes to divining who is going home with the much-coveted, tiny-but-shiny, little gold man. As such, these are my predictions, including not only who I believe will win, but also who should win (although these two things are not mutually exclusive, when it comes to the whys and wherefores of the Academy, they very often are).

^Best Picture:^ Might as well start with the big one. In the early going, it seemed Up In the Air was the frontrunner in this category, but during recent weeks, the race has narrowed to two nominees: the mighty juggernaut that is Avatar vs. the Little Film That Could, The Hurt Locker. Call me cynical, but I have a sneaking suspicion this could have something to do with the fact that Avatar’s James Cameron used to be married to The Hurt Locker’s Kathryn Bigelow—making this a David vs. Goliath story with a twist—but there are powerful arguments in favor of both films, in Avatar’s case, namely its mind-boggling special effects and equally mind-boggling $1 billion in worldwide box office. As for The Hurt Locker, Bigelow’s hard-to-watch, but undeniably well-done war story has pretty well swept every pre-Oscar awards ceremony, typically a pretty good harbinger of success come the big night. But there are other nominees in this newly expanded category, eight of them to be exact, and of those, probably seven of them—District 9, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, and Up in the Air—deserve to be there. Which leaves us with The Blind Side. Even during a weak year, there were better—far better, in fact—films than the one that seemed to be remarkable only in the fact that it proved that Sandra Bullock can indeed still act (I know. It surprised me too). Seriously, Academy, did Star Trek and Moon do something to piss you off? The mind reels.

Who should win: It’s hard to deny the power of The Hurt Locker,, and both Precious and Up In the Air could be considered award worthy as well. However, I saw the gleefully sprawling cinematic good time that was Inglourious Basterds—twice—and walked away both times convinced that as the enfant terrible of modern cinema, nobody does it better than Quentin Tarantino.

Who will win: The Hurt Locker. All those pre-Oscar award-show accolades can’t be wrong. And if history is any indication, they rarely ever are.

^Best Director:^ It follows that he or she whose film wins Best Picture also wins Best Director. And, as the director is typically the one who nurses a cinematic project from conception to execution, often believing in and fighting for a vision no one else can see, this is as it should be. So, it stands to reason, then, that this year’s Best Director battle comes down to James Cameron for Avatar and Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. Lee Daniels did an incredible job crafting a harrowing, yet ultimately heart-warming story in Precious, Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds was the best time you could have inside a movie theater in 2009, and Jason Reitman will almost certainly earn an Oscar at some point in his career—although I don’t know that it will be for Up In the Air, fine film though it certainly was.

Who should win: Quentin Tarantino made a film that was, in its own way, just as ambitious as Avatar—and it came with just as much cinematic risk attached (after all, the Holocaust is tricky comedic fodder at best). However, from its brilliantly rendered opening scenes to its closing credits, Tarantino pulled off every off-kilter, delightfully sadistic minute of it in his own oft-imitated, but never duplicated style.

Who will win: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. She took a tiny budget, little-known subject matter, no big-name stars and a decidedly uncomfortable topic and turned them into truly affecting cinema. Those blue cats of James Cameron’s may be sexy and all, but Bigelow’s film is the stuff Oscar moments are made for.

^Best Actor:^ I want George Clooney to win a Best Acting Oscar. Because he, maybe more than any other leading man out there, makes what is difficult look deceptively easy. He deserved the award when he was nominated for Michael Clayton—but was overshadowed by the unforgettable, powerhouse performance of Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood. For his nuanced turn as a traveling corporate hitman of sorts in Up In the Air, he has earned the accolade once again, and once again, is overshadowed by a powerhouse performance of a different kind, this one by Jeff Bridges as Bad Blake in Crazy Heart. Clooney is, of course, already an Oscar winner (he won a Best Supporting Actor award for 2005’s Syriana), so it is pretty tough to feel sorry for the guy. But I have a feeling Oscar might not be quite done with him yet.

Who should win: Despite what I said about my desire to see Clooney walk away with the award, five-time nominee Jeff Bridges earned it about five times over for his portrayal of proverbial hardcore troubadour Bad Blake in Crazy Heart. I probably would’ve offered up Sam Rockwell in this category for his absolutely riveting work in Moon, but somehow the esteemed Academy forgot to nominate him.

Who will win: See above. The man has been nominated five times. Just give Bridges his Oscar already.

^Best Actress:^ Before we discuss about who actually deserves this award, let’s pause for a moment and ponder what sort of deal with which brand of satanic entity Sandra Bullock had to strike to earn this nomination. Yeah, I get it: Miss Congeniality finally showed us she can act. Let’s not pretend she deserves an award based on that mere fact alone. As for who does deserve the award, well, it’s never wise to rule out Meryl Streep. After all, the woman has been nominated a whopping 16 times, and her portrayal of Julia Child in Julie and Julia ranks up there with some of her better work. But a couple of newcomers this year proved they’ve got some award-worthy acting chops as well. I’m talking, of course, about Carey Mulligan’s luminous, star-making turn in An Education, as well as Gabourey Sidibe’s stunning work as the title character in Precious.

Who should win: If there is any justice in this world—and I’m willing to allow for the possibility—Sidibe will take Oscar home with her. Precious was the single most affecting film I saw last year, and the entire thing hinged on first-timer Sidibe’s uncannily insightful performance.

Who will win: Because there is no justice in this world, the award could very well go to Sandra Bullock. After all, the Academy loves a comeback story—even if it has to engineer the comeback in question itself.

^Best Supporting Actor:^ If any category is a shoo-in, it is definitely this one. Thanks for getting all gussied up, walking the red carpet and generally playing along, Matt Damon, Woody Harrelson, Christopher Plummer, and Stanley Tucci, but Christoph Waltz had this award sewn up since the second he stepped onscreen in Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds. As “Jew Hunter” Col. Hans Landa, Waltz pulled off a performance—in four different languages, no less—that was the delightfully villainous cornerstone of Tarantino’s entire film. Tarantino is a master at crafting colorful characters, and, in Waltz, he found the perfect match for his twisted vision.

Who should win: Christoph Waltz. Hands down. No question.

Who will win: See above.

^Best Supporting Actress:^ A weak year for films often means a weak year for female roles. Sadly, this proved true in 2009 (see above rant about Sandra Bullock’s Best Actress nomination). Both of the women from Up In the Air—Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick—earned nods, which will likely mean they’ll split the Academy’s vote and both will come up empty (of the two, Kendrick is easily the more deserving one). Maggie Gyllenhaal does her customary excellent work in Crazy Heart, but is she deserving of an Oscar for it? Methinks no. Which leaves Penelope Cruz in the critically panned Nine—a long shot at best—and Mo’nique, for her turn as the monstrous mother in Precious. Out of all of them, the only one truly deserving of the award is Mo’nique, who makes Joan Crawford’s Mommie Dearest look like Mother of the Year.

Who should win: Mo’nique. For even the most seasoned dramatic actress, that role would’ve been an act of onscreen courage. For someone who is best known for her comedic skills, it was a performance that was nothing short of astonishing.

Who will win: See above.