Cascade Effect

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

CASCADE EFFECT: Rattling around inside the heads of the Republican Senate must be the calculation that a timely confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court of Elena Kagan—a mild centrist jurist and fellow traveler in their D.C. circles, who should ignite in them no fiercely held reasons to deny her confirmation (and even if she should, they have little power in their minority to “Bork” her)—may pick up an additional Republican governor in the West.

The White House confirmed last week that Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire was on a short list of candidates to replace Kagan as solicitor general to the Obama Administration. Gregoire, who came out early and boldly in her 2008 endorsement of candidate Barack Obama’s campaign for the federal executive, seems unlikely to seek a third term as governor and equally unlikely to turn down that invitation from her president should he call.

Should these events unfold before the end of June, it positions Republican Dino Rossi sweetly for a run on the governor’s mansion in a special election in November.

Though he’s received many invitations, including one from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Rossi has been coyly reticent about a possible run against U.S. Sen. Patty Murray. In the opinion of this columnist, he’s been wise to be reluctant to spar against the diminutive but surprisingly fiery (and well funded) Democrat: a third loss for this two-time loser would dry up Dino’s backers and fundraisers. And while she never polls particularly well, Murray is a formidable political survivor.

Rossi continues to be embroiled in a number of personal and financial scandals—an unreported $50,000 received from a real estate partner who went on to bilk hundreds of local investors of more than $100 million; $20,000 in back taxes owed on a property owned by Rossi’s investment firm; the foundering of a commercial bank he helped form; campaign finance scandals that arose from the millions of dollars Rossi received laundered through the Building Industry Association and Realtors PAC—but, honestly, we don’t see those as insurmountable barriers to Rossi gaining the governor’s mansion: Republicans seem to actually prefer their candidates smudged with evildoings, particularly when those crimes involve ripping off the government and bashing the political process while making millions. Rs eat up that stuff!

With his name recognition and sizable war chest, aided by the narrow window of a special election and his most formidable potential challenger—Seattle’s Rep. Jay Inslee—tied up in a reelection bid for Congress, Rossi’s run on Olympia to replace Gregoire might well be unstoppable.

For all that, we wouldn’t envy him:

While firming polls indicate Democrats may yet avoid a complete rout in national races, the conventional wisdom is power always changes hands in midterm elections. But in contrast to 2006, when powerful voter dissatisfaction in the middle of the second term of the Bush Administration produced massive down-ballot gains for Democrats in state races, we’re unlikely to see state Democrats losing their current strong majorities in the Legislature in November, even if Republicans do gain control of Congress. America’s newfound “anti-incumbency” fever does not appear to transfer to state races. For Rossi, or any Republican governor, this would essentially spell an outmatched, politically isolated and paralyzed administration, one unlikely for renewal by voters for an additional term in 2012.

Certainly “anti-incumbency” will not be much of a factor in the 42nd Legislative District, despite its reputation as a volatile swing district.

Democrat Rep. Kelli Linville has (deservedly) drawn only one brave challenger, youthful Everson Republican Vincent Buys; and the announced retirement of Republican state Sen. Dale Brandland likewise did not draw a firestorm of applicants for the open seat. Surprisingly, though, the announcement by Rep. Doug Ericksen that he would seek the senate seat vacated by his fellow Republican has drawn a cascade of applicants to replace him.

Running for Ericksen’s seat in the 42nd are Democrats Richard May and Al Jensen, locked in a fierce struggle for endorsements. Earlier this month May received the endorsement of Whatcom Democrat precinct committee officers, an important first step in securing the state party endorsement; Jensen this week gained the endorsement of the Washington State Labor Council. Linville and Rep. Jeff Morris also received this powerful labor support. On the Republican side, Blaine City Council member Jason Overstreet gained a challenge last week from Ferndale high school teacher Michael Smith. Into this crowded field Craig Mayberry announced he will run as an independent. Mayberry was unsuccessful in his challenge of Kelli Linville in 2006 after Whatcom Republicans abruptly withdrew their endorsement of the Lynden resident.

A similar struggle is shaping up in the 40th Legislative District, with the announced retirement of veteran Rep. Dave Quall drawing a cascade of challengers. Rancher Tom Pasma snagged the endorsement of 40th LD Democrats; Kris Lytton last week received the early endorsement of the progressive National Women’s Political Caucus of Washington. The Anacortes businesswoman also leads the field in campaign contributions. Compared to Pasma and Lytton, Mount Vernon Democrat Tom Boucher is running a much quieter race. Similarly quiet are challengers on the Republican side, Bellingham businessman Dusty Gulleson and Skagit County real estate agent Mike Newman.

The Gristle’s early prediction for these races (with several weeks yet left to file for office) is that while new faces may take new seats, the mix of Ds-to-Rs is unlikely to change in November.

Jeff Morris, as formidable in the 40th as Linville is in the 42nd, has drawn an unaccustomed August primary with the entry of Green Party candidate Howard Pellett and Republican businessman John Swapp.

Doug Ericksen, a familiar face among conservatives, has drawn as a challenger Blaine business owner Pat Jerns, a relatively unknown candidate who will nevertheless benefit from the infusion of cash state Democrats may flood into this race to keep it out of the hands of Ericksen, considered by many at the state level an intractable partisan. Still, Whatcom’s strong conservative movement gives Ericksen the edge.

Despite the grumblings and rumblings of “anti-incumbency,” voters still seem to prefer the Known over the Unknown. Like one of Newton’s Laws, officeholders tend to hold their office until they choose to move on. Then many fine people arrive to fill the vacuum.