Film

Academy Awards 2012

It’s time to talk Oscar

By Carey Ross · Wednesday, February 22, 2012

While the Academy Awards are a venerated tradition rife with history and artistry, painted in broad strokes, it’s the night of the year when Hollywood dons its most expensive finery and struts, strolls or sashays its way down the red carpet in order to spend several hours celebrating its love affair with itself. As such, it is only fitting that the two films that garnered the most nominations—The Artist and Hugo, with 10 and 11 nods respectively—have at their heart a deep love of cinema and all the magic that goes into making all those movies we love.

Per usual, half of the fun of this big night comes long before the ceremony itself, with the nomination announcement. From the moment the nominees are made public right up until the doors to the Kodak Theater swing open Sun. Feb. 26, everyone with a vested interest and an opinion has formulated their own list of winners and losers.

Never one to be left out of a critical confab, I, too, have weighed evidence, conjecture and speculation to come up with my own Oscar predictions. As in years past, my guesses in each category are separated into the subsections of “Will Win” and “Should Win.” However, in light of this year’s more-infuriating-than-ever Oscar snubs, I’ve also added a paragraph for “Should Have Been Nominated,” in which I will undoubtedly vent some of my many frustrations with the esteemed Academy. So, without further ado…

Best Picture
Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Will Win: While this category ostensibly pits the two big nomination earners—The Artist and Hugo—against each other, this contest isn’t really a contest at all. Both films are unlikely in their own way—The Artist is a black-and-white, mostly silent film and Hugo is a family-friendly film made by Martin Scorsese of all people—and both detail in feel-good fashion a reverence for cinema that is heartwarmingly sentimental. However, anyone betting against The Artist in this category either hasn’t been paying attention or is a fool. In short, this critical darling and awards-season juggernaut is heading straight for the biggest Oscar landslide since Slumdog Millionaire.

Should Win: The Artist. It’s a black-and-white, almost totally silent film that relies on all that is familiar about old Hollywood to create something innovative and new. This is one cinematic gamble that deserves a golden payout.

Should Have Been Nominated: Anyone who knows me, knows what’s coming next: What the hell did Drive ever do to you, Academy? With only eight out of a possible 10 films nominated in this category, the omission of what was considered by many (including me) to be 2011’s best film is mind-boggling. Ditto the sentiment and apply it to Shame, Melancholia, or even Harry Potter.

Best Director
Nominees: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

Will Win: In another year, under another set of circumstances, Terrence Malick’s sprawling Tree of Life, which was as visionary as it was divisive, might have stood a fighting chance. So would Alexander Payne’s The Descendants, which put all of the writer/director’s strengths front and center. But, as the Best Picture award goes, so does Best Director, and with a win at the Directors Guild of America awards (an impeccable Oscar predictor), The Artist’s Michel Hazanavicius has this one pretty well sewn up.

Should Win: If Oscars were given for grand vision rather than the execution thereof, there’s no doubt this award would belong to Malick. And if Drive (cue the broken record) director Nicholas Winding Refn had earned the nod he so richly deserved for taking a pretty typical action flick and turning it into something so fearlessly and perfectly stylized, I’d make a strong case for him. Barring those things, Hazanavicius more than deserves the award for effortlessly helming what could have been a difficult project.

Should Have Been Nominated: See above. And chalk up the snub of Nicholas Winding Refn for Drive as yet another of the Academy’s crimes against the interests it professes it serve.

Best Actor
Nominees: Demian Bechir (A Better Life), George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Gary Oldman Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Will Win: Without a doubt, this is the toughest category to call. Early predictions skew toward George Clooney’s turn in The Descendants, which is another impeccably nuanced performance by an actor who rarely makes a misstep. However, given The Artist’s awards-season momentum, it would seem Jean Dujardin is now the actor to beat. So, who will actually win? Flip a coin.

Should Win: As an actor and all-around hunk, I can generally take or leave Brad Pitt. Don’t get me wrong: he’s an exceedingly fine actor, he’s just not one who typically flips my pancakes. But every now and again, to borrow a baseball metaphor, he takes a part and swings for the fences (think Inglourious Basterds), and his presence onscreen becomes positively magnetic. Such is the case with his portrayal of Oakland A’s manager Billy Beane in Moneyball. Never has a movie about baseball statistics been so darn good, and Pitt is, in large part, responsible for that.

Should Have Been Nominated: While Ryan Gosling may seem like a shoo in for this non-accolade—and his not being nominated was a snub indeed—even more inexplicable was the Academy’s slighting of Michael Fassbender for Shame. If possible, Fassbender was the only person to have a bigger year than Gosling, and before the nominees were announced, he was the assumed frontrunner in the Best Actor category. Did you have the same year at the movies the rest of us did, Academy?

Best Actress
Nominees: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), Viola Davis (The Help), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Will Win: In the weeks leading up to Oscar night, the race has come down to two actresses: Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. Streep is perceived by many to be the frontrunner, and with 17 Oscar nods to her credit (more than any other actor in history), she is maybe Hollywood’s greatest living actress. As such, she’s a threat anytime she garners a nod, but although her performance as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady was strong, the film itself was considerably weaker. Which leaves us with Davis, who starred in the enormously popular adaptation of The Help, and imbued that film with a much-needed dose of gravity and humanity.

Should Win: Just give the gold guy to Viola. If nothing else, I’m guessing the actress will make an acceptance speech that won’t leave a dry eye in the house.

Should Have Been Nominated: While We Need to Talk About Kevin has yet to make its way to our neck of the woods, word of Tilda Swinton’s searing performance has not been as slow to filter in. It’s the kind of difficult role in the kind of difficult story at which Swinton excels—and when she excels, few other actresses (up to and possibly including Streep) can touch this intelligent, fascinating actress.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)

Will Win: Endlessly elegant, exceedingly gifted and with the kind of filmography that would make any actor of any age jealous, Christopher Plummer is one of Hollywood’s most curiously underappreciated actors. Indeed, until 2009’s Last Station, Plummer had never before received an Oscar nod of any kind. And, as the Academy often likes to make up for such things by granting awards that seem more about the appreciation of an entire career (see Martin Scorsese’s win for The Departed) rather than a singular project, this will likely be Plummer’s year. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that his performance in Beginners is yet another of his faultlessly wrought dramatic accomplishments.

Should Win: If anyone other than Christopher Plummer takes home this Oscar, it will be a tragedy of cinematic proportions.

Should Have Been Nominated: Yes, this is another Drive-related snubbing. Albert Brooks, known for being pretty jovial onscreen, takes a turn for the decidedly dark in playing one of Drive’s villains—and does so in both shocking and utterly convincing fashion. The performance is easily a career best for Brooks, and his nomination should have been a sure thing.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Berenice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaides), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Octavia Spencer (The Help)

Will Win: If Viola Davis gave The Help a much-needed dose of humanity, it was Octavia Spencer who gave it its spice and sass. Together, the two were responsible for much of the success of this movie, and if Davis is deserving of a Best Actress award, Spencer should certainly be granted this accolade, as her performance is the definition of “supporting.” Plus, she’s scooped up a number of pre-Oscar awards, and such things are typically a pretty fair predictor of success come the big night.

Should Win: The Academy has proven itself to be far too Serious and Important to waste any time on comedies, which is why Melissa McCarthy’s nomination for her side-splitting and fearless turn in Bridesmaids comes as such a shock. It looks like even the staid folks who make up the voting bloc could not deny the insane hilarity brought to bear by the actress, and perhaps they’ll award her breakout performance accordingly.

Should Have Been Nominated: It’s gotta be tough to share screen time with George Clooney. Even playing a sad sack as he did in The Descendants, Clooney could not hide his irrepressible charisma. But there was one person who was able to hold her own against Hollywood’s own force of nature and that was Shailene Woodley. At just 19 years old and with no big-screen experience, Woodley was as poised and perfect an onscreen counterpart to Clooney as any seasoned Hollywood veteran.

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